What is a MOS? In computer science an OS is an acronym for (O)perating (S)ystem. An Operating System provides a base to put various apps or applications to execute. The Mind/Brain also needs an Operating System upon which we can function with what we know. It is how we apply our knowledge either upon knowledge itself or upon the things we know about. It is theory in action. A MOS is the theme upon which we execute our methods or praxis.
1. Practical application or exercise of a branch of learning.
2. Habitual or established practice; custom.
1. (Social Science / Education) the practice and practical side
of a profession or field of study, as reduced from theory
2. (Social Science / Education) a practical exercise
3. accepted practice or custom
Origin Greek: deed, action, from prassein to do]
Some say that prediction of the future is just a guess. Taking this postulate to it's extreme let us look at the operation of the human guess. Can one guess like an explosion in sheer randomness. Of course random with no shaping or influences, is only an imaginary event. Yet imagination has “fluences.” (Weibull Distribution) And there bouncing off each other, an object or an act, interact even if, it is against each other in the mix of things. There is in the mix of things these guesses and more: educated guess prosaic guess common sense guess biased guess preconditioned guess ignorant guess knowledgeable guess naïve guess expert guess studied evaluated guess lucky guess esp guess spiritural guess inspired guess denying guess pre-influenced guess random guess histerical guess crazed guess “cooked” guess chaotic guess lustful guess hopeful guess blasphemous guess divine guess disparate guess calculated guess blind guess “dumb” guess gambled guess memory guess system guess intuitive guess insightful guess stupid guess human guess guessing games guessing based upon previous guess(es) swag (acronym) Guesses in school are controled and students are not rewarded or are ridiculed for guessing in tests or when they offer ideas not always drawn from the assigned teaching and study. Guessing is seen to be an evidence of poor preparation. Never or seldom seen as ideas from intuitive and free association and insightful or intuitive feelings, structures, or approaches. Discipline and order prevail. Chaos disturbs the teaching environment. We as living beings can not guess by shear randomness . There is always Weibull distribution in the human condition . This is useful to the futurist as it is clues to the methods used to futur. The purpose for futurlogics is to increase the hit success of our guessing. So that guessing gains a greater respect or is authoritative and impressive to the skeptic with the accuracy. It makes futuring more accurate. Funny Farm movie excerpt: Moving guy: Hey Mac, which way to Redbud? Mac: How'd you know my name was Mac? Moving guy: Just guessed. Mac: Then why don't you guess your way to Redbud. Futurist guesses are influences by : Family Linguistics Cultural Sociological Economics Educational Personality Paradigms Thoughts Dreams Health . . .
So it is all a
game, this area of
study commonly and collectively known as futuring?
Well it is and it isn't. It is, because no one can predict the future with any precision . . . . And
it isn't just a guessing game, because there are methods and procedures that you may employ
to minimize (if not entirely end) the chances you will be caught flat footed when the future arrives
. . . . ~ from Bruce A. Shuman book BEYOND THE LIBRARY OF THE FUTURE
After the futurist has enough guesses. The next step would be to categorize them into such sample categories as: Crazy Ridiculous Never happen, impossible. Never happen, possible May happen, possible Possible . . . Probable Highly Probable Likely Pending Certain Inevitable Future Reality Then the futurist offers various scenarios based upon the above categories. Then the futurist ponders over the most suitable scenario(s); that is makes judgements. Then the futurist “dry labs” preparations, plans dependent upon the above scenario(s) to proof the scenarios doing risk assessments vs reward assessments. This is the place for mind experiments and ROI analysis. Next tactical to strategic preparation/planning begins if it is a bottom up style. Or Strategic to tactical planning/preparations begins if it is top down style. Or Strategic to tactical and then tactical to strategic if is is middle out style. If it is impossible to predict the future, then all efforts of futuring is a philosophical exercise as opposed to the direct prediction by some ESP, DMP, FUTURE CONSCIOUSNESS. Such things are avoided and never directly address but shrunk from and apologized for and dismissed or disrespected or are out of the rules of futuring. They are beyond the game of future studies. No religion. No spiritual awakenings. Strict observational mode and Natural future. The Synthetic future is driven by the technological utopia. This utopia is the main drive of the world society of futurist. Since all this methodology is based upon the various philosophies concerning the knowability of the future or future(s). What are the various denials or avoidance mechanisms for prediction of the future. Or in the futurlogics future(s); the plural future rather than the "historical Future" Destiny? Let us look at the various beliefs futurist have concerning discovering the future(s) from the lone wolf futurist to the peer reviewed societal futurist. They will have different strategies and internal mental structures, methods to futur the future.
Five Principles of Futuring as Applied History
Posted by: Administrator in Science & Technology Print PDF
By Stephen M. Millett:
A historian and futurist offers a theoretical framework for developing more credible and useful forecasts. The goal is to help individuals and organizations improve long-term foresight and decision making.
When I was working on my doctorate degree in history, people would quip: “Why study history? There’s no future in it!”
On the contrary, there may be a great deal of history in the future. Throughout my four-decade career as a historian engaged in futuring, I have used the past to explore the future. Like the study of history, futuring is heavily based on facts, evidence, solid research, and sound logic—more science, less science fiction.
Futuring is an example of what I call “applied history,” or the use of historical knowledge and methods to solve problems in the present. It addresses the question “What happened and why?” in order to help answer the question “How might things be in the future and what are the potential implications?” Futuring, at least in a management context, combines applied history with other methods adapted from science, mathematics, and systems analysis to frame well-considered expectations for the future. This process will help us to make decisions in the present that will have positive long-term consequences. In the language of business, futuring is an aspect of due diligence and risk management.
History provides indications of the future. Identifying historical trends helps us see patterns and long-term consistencies in cultural behavior. History may not repeat itself, but certain behaviors within cultures do. We can spot patterns in persistent traditions, customs, laws, memes, and mores. Debating whether a historical event is unique or a manifestation of a long path of behavior is like arguing whether light is a particle or a wave—the answer depends entirely upon your perspective. The past provides precedents for future behavior. When you understand how things happened in the past, you gain much foresight into the things that might happen in the future—not as literal reenactments, but rather as analogous repetitions of long-term behavior that vary in their details according to historical conditions. Let me hasten to qualify my view of history by saying that I see no immutable forces in the flow of history, no invisible hands of predestination, fate, or economic determinism. Time may be like an arrow, in the words of Sir Arthur Eddington, but I very seriously doubt that it has a prescribed target. I am also skeptical of the concept of political or economic cycles recurring with regular periodicity. If there were any determinism or predictability whatsoever in human behavior, it lies in our evolutionary biology and cultures. Luck, randomness, and the idiosyncrasies of free will play important roles in determining the future as well.
While the study of history has been rich in philosophy, it has lacked theories such as those found in the natural and social sciences. Most historians have not pursued such theories, because they see each period of history as being unique and as having little or no practical applications for problem solving today. Futuring as applied history, however, needs basic principles upon which to build forecasts that can be used for long-term decision making.
A Framework for Understanding the Future
The study of the future is very sparse in both philosophy and theory. Theories (which may also be seen as mental or analytical models) provide a framework for forecasts and give them a credibility that increases managers’ willingness to take calculated risks. In addition, they can help us utilize our knowledge of demonstrated trends, interactions, and causes to better anticipate the future. The theories do not have to be rigid, but they do need to provide an explicit framework that can be modified, expanded, and even rejected by experience.
To that end, I have been working on a set of theoretical principles for futuring from the point of view of an applied historian. I offer them now as working guidelines until others can offer better.
Futuring Principle 1>> The future will be some unknown combination of continuity and change.
After an event occurs, you can always find some evidence of the path that led up to it. Sometimes when viewed in hindsight, the path looks so linear that it is tempting to conclude that the outcome was inevitable all along. In reality, it is the historical research that is deterministic, not the events themselves.
No historical event has ever occurred without antecedents and long chains of cause-and-effect relationships. Nor was there ever a time when decision makers did not have choices, including the simple option to do nothing. Yet, in the present moment, one can never be certain which chains of events will play out. While there are continuities in the past and the present, there are also changes, many of which cannot be anticipated. Sometimes these changes are extreme, resulting from high-impact, low-probability events known as “wild cards.”
Thus, the future always has been and most likely always will be an unknown combination of both trend continuities and discontinuities. Figuring out the precise combination is extremely difficult. Therefore, we must study the trends but not blindly project them into the future—we have to consider historical trends, present conditions, and imagined changes, both great and small, over time. You might say that trend analysis is “necessary but not sufficient” for futuring; the same goes for imagined changes, too.
Futuring Principle 2>> Although the future cannot be predicted with precision, it can be anticipated with varying degrees of uncertainty, depending upon conditions. Forecasts and plans are expectations for the future, and they are always conditional.
As twentieth-century physicist Niels Bohr famously said, it is very hard to make predictions, especially about the future. Yet, we can and do form expectations about the future ranging from ridiculous to prescient. David Hume, Werner Heisenberg, and Karl Popper cautioned us to be wary of drawing inductive inferences about the unknown from the known. This caution applies as much to futuring as it does to science.
All events occur in the context of historical conditions; likewise, all events in the future will almost certainly occur within a set of conditions. Therefore, all forecasts are conditional.
We may not be able to anticipate specific events in the future, but we can form well-considered expectations of future outcomes by looking at specific conditions and scenarios. For example, “When will the United States experience again an annual GDP growth rate of 7% or higher?” is a much more elusive question to address than “Under what likely conditions would it be reasonable to expect the United States’ annual GDP growth rate to be 7% or higher in the future?”
Futuring Principle 3>> Futuring and visioning offer different perspectives of the future—and these perspectives must complement one another.
This principle draws a distinction between futuring and visioning. Futuring looks at what is most plausibly, even likely, to unfold, given trends, evolving conditions, and potentially disruptive changes. It emphasizes conditions that are partially if not largely out of your own control.
Visioning, on the other hand, involves formulating aspirational views of the future based on what you want to see happen—in other words, how you would like events to play out. Of course, just because you want a certain future to happen does not guarantee that it will.
Strategic planning is a manifestation of visioning. If an organization does not engage in forecasting with all the rigor of historical criticism and good science, strategic planning can be just so much wishful thinking. I find that wishful thinking is alive and well in many corporations and institutions. Both futuring and visioning are necessary and they go hand-in-hand—just be careful to correctly identify which you are doing and why.
Futuring Principle 4>>
All forecasts and plans should be well-considered expectations for the future, grounded in rigorous analysis.
Futuring methods fall into three broad, fundamental categories: trend analysis, expert judgment, and scenarios (also known as multi-optional or alternative futures). Historical research methods and criticism play well in all three categories.
As a futurist, I have no data from the future to work with. I cannot know in the present whether a forecast of mine will turn out to be “right,” or “accurate,” or even “prescient,” but I know what I can and cannot convincingly defend as being well-considered expectations for the future.
In this regard, the soundness of philosophical premises and theories, along with familiarity with best research practices, will add much to your foresight credibility and to the usefulness of your futuring activities.
Futuring Principle 5>>
There is no such thing as an immutable forecast or a plan for a future that is set in stone.
Forecasts and plans must be continuously monitored, evaluated, and revised according to new data and changing conditions in order to improve real-time frameworks for making long-term decisions and strategies.
A forecast is a
well-considered expectation for the future; it is an informed
speculation or a working hypothesis, and as such is always a
work-in-progress. Forecasts, like historical research, can never be
completed. There is always more to be said on the subject as time
passes. We must continuously use new and better information to
evaluate and modify our expectations for the future. ~
(The Above is Thematic to the Absolute Future in the Futurlogics Retrospective Mode)
It is possible to
mathematically predict the directions in which stars, planets, and
other objects in space will travel, but can we also predict how things will unfold
here on Earth? Yes, in many cases, argues mathematician Florin Diacu.
(The Above is Thematic to the Natural Future in the Futurlogics Observational Mode)
Some never present credential but present fabulous rumors and common myths of the future. They accumulate expert opinions and forecasts being a reporter to the extrapolations and interpolations of the worlds authorities. They will have future grids such as innovation, generation technologies, society, business, virtual/media, world. Delphi method sometimes provides a support group to certain ideas of the future or scenarios by consensus. This is not the Isaiah Principle where one lone savant prophesy of the future is a meditative state with poetry and art. Example website is at www.futurepredictions.com
Welcome to the Personal Futures Network!
Methods for learning about the future have been available and in use by businesses for decades, but the process has simply been too complex for most individuals. The Personal Futures Network introduces some new, easily understood approaches that will help you to think like a futurist and learn about your personal futures.
Think like a futurist? What does that really mean, think like a futurist? Well, each futurist may have some different thoughts, but generally futurists think about longer term futures, usually 10 or more years ahead. Futurists believe that the future is not predetermined, but that several futures are possible. If several futures are possible, then one of those futures may be better than the others, or a "preferred" future. Very important; futurists believe that individuals or groups can take actions in the present that will help determine the future.
That brief paragraph helps explain why most futurists don't make predictions about the future, but rather suggest multiple possible futures, often in the form of "scenarios" or stories about the future.
The next page, Personal Futures offers a brief outline showing how to use futures methods to explore and prepare for YOUR future in three steps:
1. Understand your life
2. Explore plausible futures (personal scenarios)
3. Plan to achieve the future you want (personal strategic planning)
~ quoted from www.personalfutures.net
(The above has elements of the Imaginary Future in the Futurlogics Imaginary Mode)
(The idea is that as prediction are made in major media outlets they track the success failure rate. This is problematic as some prediction are for preparation and warning to avoid a situation. Example if it is predicted that all of a city will be producing a high fatality rate. But because the city is evacuated due to the prediction no one was harmed by the warned event. Did the prediction fail or succeed? Definition of success criteria is important!)
There are a lot of problems with applying game theory to a situation like the budget negotiations. The first, and most obvious, is that game theory is predominantly a theoretical area of study. Game theorists make a lot of assumptions and simplifications. These shortcuts make most games more interesting to consider as thought experiments rather than actual, predictive models.
One such assumption is that all players are rational. As we’ve discussed on Game Theory Ninja previously, this assumption needs some serious work. Shapiro doesn’t talk about this, and instead kicks the story off with a statement about politicians: “To a game theorist, each one of these people is a rational, logical, actor.” To a game theorist, yes. But you’d be hard-pressed to find someone on the street who agrees with this. ~ www.gametheoryninja.com
SEQUENCE 1: DEFINITION, PURPOSES, PITFALLS AND PARADOXES
Futuring is an attempt to predict trends and events which haven't occurred yet. Usually, it also involves attempts to control these events or at least deflect them in a desired direction.
The future has two parts, one shared by all humanity on our planet, and another that is unique to you as an individual, your program, your organization, community, etc. A revolution in Chile is desperately important to the people who live there; it is vastly less urgent and immediate in its future potential for a hospital volunteer program in Peoria. Conversely, an impending $5,000 local budget cut may be crucial in Peoria, but wouldn't make much difference to the national budget of Chile.
This unique component is the concern of this article, for we believe every person needs to be her or his own futurist. Therefore, competency as a futurist should be added to the list of skills expected of the volunteer leader. Forecasts from Ottawa, Washington, New York, Chicago, Toronto, and Los Angeles are only a rough starting point-unless you happen to live in one of these cities. At best, generic forecasts are full of white spaces that only locals can fill in.
To say that no one else can completely cast and shape the future for you, is not to claim it's easy to do for yourself. Futuring is commonly seen as forbidden ground for anyone unprepared to steep in esoterica or mysticism. Not so. This entire article is invested in demonstrating feasible futuring processes. Indeed, we are already "unconscious futurists" in much of what we do, in planning, leadership, etc. Please reserve judgment on the issue for now, and let the article speak for itself. ~ By Ivan Scheier, PhD academic.regis.edu/volunteer/ivan/sect04/AVAsequenceI.htm
(salient point "unconscious futurists") We make assumptions concerning the future to make continuous our thoughts. We cannot avoid it. Most of our assumptions come from foretelling, therefore understanding our assumptions gives us a good idea of the nature of foretelling and its subconscious workings. We are reminded again of the man who exclaimed that he bet handled the problems of the future by "just not thinking of it." He doesn't consciously consider the future and considers it illogical to do so because of its intangible nature. Subconscious means can work with the seeming contradiction of the future. This does not mean that we can't consciously consider the future, but that we should be aware of side effects and built-in obstacles. We can operate all day long on the unconscious presciencing and not notice excessive doubt or perplexity. But subject our behavior to conscious thought and the demands of objective certainty and we will experience the limits of certainty. We may not think of the future in order to remain "certain," as action requires distinct accuracy. Much like the ostrich hides his head thinking he is hid. The sun will shine; the earth will continue to orbit; the planet will still support normal life; these and other predictions are stock foretelling. They are taken for granted. They are assumed to continue to occur. There is no way we can prove absolutely that the sun will shine tomorrow if we accept that the rules of certainty will apply and what worked in the past will also work for the future. As long as we don't consciously think of the unconscious prescience, they are as good as absolute certainties--because we never DOUBT them. In other words, "what you don't know won't hurt you." ~ exerpt from the Futurlogics.
(The Above is Thematic of the Artificial Future in the Futurlogics Assumptive Mode)
So, what is a futurist? First, a futurist does not “predict” the future, they use foresight skills to complement insight and hindsight. One foresight skill is basic forecasting (trend analysis), but this only works if the field under investigation is relatively stable. In unstable fields, futurists use scenario planning to project several possible outcomes – by examining the possibilities, an organization can plan for the most common outcomes, or at least think through some of the planning necessary for extreme possibilities (often, several extreme possibilities have some commonalities). Futurists have to think creatively about the direction and meaning of trends, not just within a field, but in the surrounding fields. You could say that Futurists have to be excellent systems thinkers.
Who does futuring? Well, technically, if you’ve ever made a budget for the next year, or participated in a strategic planning process, then you do. In both of these activities, you look at the trends, social, technological, environmental, and political indicators to make your best plan for the future. Is it a guess? Yes. But it is an informed guess, and we do it to help us to weather change.So, what is a Learning Futurist, in particular? A learning futurist looks at characteristics of intelligence and brain development. They examine educational research to look for valid learning methods that might develop into technologies and learning strategies in the future. They help people to recognize the necessity and importance of lifelong learning (with the acceleration of technology, you’re losing ground if your learning is not keeping up). A learning futurist examines the available and predicted science and technology, social trends, and shifts to the political, economic, and cultural environment to thinks creatively about how learning will be impacted. Because education, in particular, tends to move slower than business and other industries, it is particularly important to pay attention to the trends and technologies outside of education. A learning futurist also keeps tabs on the future of careers and watches how work” is changing. After all, students eventually become workers, and even workers should still be learning. To prepare our students (especially in higher education), we must pay attention to trends in the work force.
As far as I know, I am the first person to identify myself as a
Learning Futurist” (but you can find examples of many well-known
education futurists). In particular, I focus on higher education and
adult learning in a timespan 5-15 years out. I read voraciously,
everything from academic journals to blog posts. I rely on my social
network (Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, and social connections) to keep
me informed about new developments in other fields that might be
important to learning and education. I share what I learn and think
in open spaces, to encourage conversation and idea development about
the future of learning. ~ quoted from
A professional futurist may build his/her personal think tank and develop a unique way of thinking about the future. He/she may target a distinguished futurist journal to publish his/her articles there. Meeting with other futurists especially those who may give a new idea regarding the future is always a rewarding experience. Attending futurist events especially those meeting professional needs and areas of activities may be another habit of a professional futurist, but he/she never considers predicting the future as a task just as the American futurist Bruce Sterling said once, a futurist’s job is “to predict the present” not the future.
In a higher level, the leading futurists try to imagine “free work” from the claws of its old dependency on salary. They believe that the future is created out of consciousness and a process of clarification. The unconscious is transformed into the conscious and acts and this transformation builds what is called: “the future”. The leading futurists think about reliable systems that may facilitate this transformation and the professional futurists may help them in this regard. In a longer shot, they look forward to find proper systems for communicating their ideas about the future with next generations.
This can be regarded only as a general categorization and many kinds of
classifications may be offered based on other dimensions, even with
more branches and details. We may never know fully ourselves as the
futurists, but the next generations will know who we were at least by
reading what we have written on the header of our websites such as:
Tomorrow is built today.” or “The future is a chance to be
new”. Doesn’t it sound like the words that the Delphi oracle had
above its entrance: KNOW YOURSELF!”? ~ By: Alireza Hejazi
To understand a futurist, it is important to know how a futurist develops to a seasoned and experiences professional status; or it is enlightening to understand their personal development and approaches to learning. Therefore futurist are best understood by the context of their resume and background, culture, and METHODS or PRAXIS and SELF-KNOWLEDGE. Self-esteem determines what the futurist feels about the future. Or how his feeling bias the discoveries in the future. The self-concept influences what we interpret and perceive, It's the Mother Paradigm of all other paradigms; it will shape performance expectations of others toward others and or others to ones self in the work they do. They build self-confidence or charisma in teaching others the future principles of futuring or the system of futurlogics, the secrets if you will. The self-concept and self-confidence and self-esteem is fundamental to futuring as these factors influence the mind and the futuring about the future. !!!(unconscious to the conscious and "know yourself")!!!
Cornish reminds us that H.G. Wells called for a science of the future as early as 1902.
In his account of recent work in futures studies, he shows that we have made progress
toward fulfilling Wells's vision. Readers unfamiliar with the futures field, of course,
may question how assertions about the future can be "scientific," when the future,
since it hasn't yet happened, is nonexistent and hence not observable.
But Cornish fully answers the question, showing that there are many observable
phenomena that bear on the future. For example, time series data can be used to
identify past trends that can be projected into the future. Possibilities for the future
are real and exist in the present (e.g., this glass is breakable, and, thus, has a possible
future in which it might be broken). Causal knowledge can be restated as contingent
predictions . . .
We can predict the future because we can control it ~ Ed Cornish See Ed Cornish article this website
Power Trip cautioned here. Science has perfect hindsight. Strategic Planning instead of prediction may be the rebranding.
(The above is Thematic of the Synthetic future in the Futurlogics Creative Mode)
OVERALL VIEW Whether it is the "Lone Wolf" futurist or "fully accepted in a society" futurist, all are budding prophets given enough time and opportunity to learn the secrets of probing the future. Futurist grow in spurts as is evident by their breakthroughs. However, there are fundamental rules, guidelines or praxis to futuring. Be Realistic the future will be real and subject to the most rigorous scientific investigation. You have to have plenty of time to forecast. Trust that there are true methods and models of research. Respect other's talents honestly and you will get respect back from your peer group for their approval. Charity towards the beginner is how the future movement grows Be proud enough and confident enough to present your findings for publications or if you are lone wolf futurist self-publish as this effort in itself will give personal growth and solidify your certainties. Man is spiritual or Man is a product of the evolutionary processes, Inasmuch as man is spiritual being , he is capable of considering, pondering, creating, meditating thoughts on the future(s), by abstraction through abstraction. If man is a product of evolution then when is his evolution finished and where is it going. Futur it. So what is the affect/effect of the continual study of the future as a total abstraction upon the mind of man? This kind of study necessitates the ability and/or facility to handle or use abstractions or abstract thoughts. A MOS is needed to capacitate the mind to handle abstraction. Continual study of the future will build or create an MOS or theory upon which a praxis or methods can be used. As in Money Creation futuring or future studies generally takes at least three forms a. Top down central planing, social collectively engineered and by assigned commitment. b. Bottom up capital sovereignty, spontaneous inventive, free will generation of monetary value or series of predictions. c. Simultaneous top down / bottom up approach to the future. May be called middle out approach. Let us reconsider man's attempt to probe the future in his ways(methods). To be learned is good if they hearken to the counsels of God. ~ Book of Mormon Expanded Now or the loss of self outlined in the Natural Future method in Futurlogics. (There was no present tense used in the old Hebrew except once a year.) Futuring is utopia driven or doom driven driven. Futuring can be prospective thinking driven or Futurlogics organic system. In the future to "out think" the competition or opposition is the name of the game of business and politics. There is a risk to teaching others the methods, modes, models of futuring and futurlogics as they who receive info and are not converted but receive a partial knowledge. You risk making them an educated enemy or opponent. (A little knowledge is dangerous in other words.) Prophesy to the understanding and don't go beyond or the cast pearls will be bullets coming back. Modern futuring has no, or does no, published probing into the "life after death" at a personal level, but there is a constant probe of "life after your death" at the societal level. Thus there is no personal destiny beyond this current life considered. Futurlogics considers all because:
FUTURLOGICS is a MOS, (M)ind (O)perating (S)ystem, that awakes the mind and brain to handle those future(s) ahead of us. The Future is always either a Warning or a Promise you can choose.
Daniel Burrus: Predicting the Future
Daniel Burrus: amandis - The best way to predict the future
The illusion of time : past, present and future all exist together
Copyright by Self Teaching Publications November 14, 2011 all rights reserved