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GLOSSARY OF Futurlogics

Copyright © 2011

It is not only impossible to predict the future; but, it is also foolish not to try.


Authoritative Pronouncements: Predicting dogma as a form of social conditioning.

Computer Generated Models and Simulations: Computer algorithm of the real to measure interactions.
  Used where massive data exist such as weather, earthquakes.

Cross-Impact Analysis: Part of the 'System Thinking' concepts of cycles: virtual, vicious, balanced,
  and their interactions.

Cost-Benefit Analysis: Planning resource allocations. See activity of Planning in  this book.  Also
 THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE Edited by Andy Hines and Peter Bishop © 2006. 
 Decision advantage analysis.

Delphi Conferencing: Group Futurlogics or futuristic(s) discussion as answered in these pages. 
 But currently seen as a blind survey of the experts, concerning future scenarios. Collecting in the box
thinking as opposed to Transdisciplinary Research. Futurlogics Modal thinking.
Denouements: Endings to complex predictions, foretelling or prophecy: 1. The final outcome of the main dramatic complication in a literary work. Note: Last Day as portrayed in the scriptures. 2. The outcome of a complex sequence of events is backcasted to determine the cause(s) and method(s) to produce the prediction of the future, which is either a bellwether, pilot and/or precursor. Environmental Scanning: Gathering data in a neutral fashion as with scientific detachment, generally associative to a notional future, or just related by either cause or result. Selecting information with rules to collect data. Examples of Nature: The use of natural occurrences such as, animal migrations and survival in nature that portend human invention. Plant adaptations apply to the human condition. VELCRO® was an invention inspired by the burr in nature. Fulfillment of historical levels of society as seen from/by man: 1. Hunter/Gather Level of Societal Progress 2. Agricultural Level of Societal Progress 3. Industrial Level of Societal Progress 4. Communication Level of Societal Progress 5. Knowledge Level of Societal Progress 6. Thinking Level of Societal Progress 7. Spiritual Level of Societal Progress Fulfillment of predictions in principle. Vs Fulfillment of predictions in actuality: Theory vs practice.

futur: verb: The activity of futuring.

futuring: The mental consideration of the future as a concept, as a
potential reality , and as all that is yet to be in actuality.


Futurlogics : Futuring using six or seven thought streams (modes, models, paradigms)
to approach the future(s).


   
Global Models: Due to the confinement of the Earth, there will be this demarcation of all forces and causes.
 (Unless religion brings in extra-earth concepts such as heaven, after-life existence, resurrection, millennium.
 Global government will oppose religion for this reason of breaking the "natural confinement" of the Earth.
 This opposition is a prediction that is easy to 'see'.) 

Grids of the Future: This technique is used to pare down the future to certain areas to focus predictive or
futuring activities. This approach will allow greater regional freedom as it disconnects the global forces.
Also it allows the future tool of the Not Here Method as it create a list. Sovereignty is heightened.
Becarefull that grids are not continually consolidated to the one unit grid as it becomes the global model.

Group Sourcing the Future: This technique is used to build robust scenarios of the future by bringing in
non-expert oppinions and perspectives rather than gathering experts to their expertise. This approach will
allow greater latitude to all who may see the plans or views and disconnects the tunnel vision of the expert
and authorities. It can be currently seen as a blind survey of the non-experts concerning future scenarios/methods.
Some times known as "idiot proofing the products of futuring."

Location Prediction:  Prediction over a specific area, rather than all the earth.  The earth is sectioned out by
 continents, countries, geographic areas.

Mode: Using a particular mental discipline to predict, or an "in the box view" to forecast, predict.
 Experts using their academic speciality to forecast.

Money Trails: Following the money, creation to destruction, buying to selling, valuation to devaluation.
 Macroeconomic, microeconomic, economic forecasting.

Normalcy Bias: This bias takes two general forms: The first form tends to understate new future information. 
 The second form takes future information and over-reacts to the news. 
 The modes in futurlogics will have Normalcy Bias depending on the skill to flip modes and see with different perspectives. 

Not Here Method: When confronted with a vast list of possibilities and even probabilities, this technique
 takes one item in the list, and determines if it is in “this place,” or if it is in “that place,” or “Is it here?”. 
 After this the prognosticator concentrates his efforts, to the pared down list, to maybe “it is here,” orprobably here,” search. 

Opening Curtains:Break out” events or “break through” speculations with timing.
 Examples:
 What if gasoline is replaced?:
 Who is to lose from this discovery? 
 Who is to gain from this discovery?' 
 Anticipating technological breakthroughs.

Personal Outcome: Prediction of internal mental and emotional changes that are not visible externally,
 but can be reported to the investigator by testimony/response.

Precursor or Bellwether Analysis: Using leads or living examples to predict wider scale applications. 
 Isaiah used many local events to typify future events.

Religion and Cultural Influences: Man's beliefs and man's traditions, in conditioning  and shaping
 the social environment of man.

Risk Assessment: The Artificial Future or decision impact analysis. 

Scenarios: Imaginative stories about the future that have some drive or passion. Essentially
 the Imaginary Future that is not based on conscious but subconscious assumptions. 
 (Typical of the Imaginary Future.)

Singularity: Imaginative point where artificial intelligence is acheived where the machine 
equals or exceeds the mind of man. First step to achieve the Transhumanist Goal.
(Typical of the Synthetic Future.) Spectrum Gradient: Setting forth hierarchical relationship with a commonality. Any objective that is separated by degrees, or levels of severity, or gradients of intelligence. Transdisciplinary Research: Use of expert opinion outside the area of expertise, that is extra-modal extrapolations
and/or interpolations. Using out of the box views to predict as opposed to in the box thinking of the Delphi Conference.
Futurlogics Model thinking.
Transhumanism: Feature of the Synthetic Future in Futurlogics where synthetic man concept
sets the goal to improve man himself by his own technology. Futurlogics Synthetic Model of creative thinking gone recursive. Reference quotes in futurlogics: "We are even trying to make synthetic man, as we see from the latest advancements of the medical field."
"This is brought home when we begin to think about the emerging science of social engineering, and
the creation of the synthetic man."
Technological Forecasting: Part of the Natural Future or the observational mode extrapolations and/or interpolations. Using science to predict. Technology Assessment: Part of the Natural Future or the observational mode quantifications. Math as a predictive method--notably statistics. Trend: Continuities in the Natural Future which can be aimed tward the future to project a forecast. Trend Analysis: Is the extrapolation of trends or linear events in the present to the future, to generate a future line. But future curves may also be observed in social phenomena. Basic trend extrapolation is a projection of current conditions. Since some projections would be curves rather than linear extensions, be aware some curves may be "S" shaped, meaning they will bend out of "line of sight." Best for short range prediction. (Typical of the Natural Future ) Trend Synthesis: A method to get overall effect of many trends or events. This is equivalent to a macro-view of Futurlogics method/model. (Again typical of the Natural Future. Visioning: Building vivid mental images and models of the future, that will be a motivating force to build or wait for the future envisioned. (Typical of the positive side of the Artificial Future.) Weather and Geophysical Events: The effect/affect of the Earth and it's movements and moods, to influence or change the living conditions of man on this planet. End of the glossary by FUTURLOGICS Begins the wikipedia techniques http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_techniques wikipeida Future Techniques NOTE: in wikipedia the CLA allusion to futurlogics: Causal layered analysis (CLA) is getting close to the underlying principles of Futurlogics. As the different ways of knowing is similar to the modes in futurlogics. Except they are not organic in origin. End of the wikipeida techniques wikipedia.org http://www.foresightguide.com/foresight-glossary/ Begins the glossary by www.WFS.org (now not accessable) bellwether brainstorming butterfly effect chaos cross-impact analysis cycle Delphi technique Malthusian discontinuity discounting the future dystopia expert forecasting fatalism force forecast forecast, self-fulfilling forecast, self-negating forecasting, judgmental forecasting, technological foresight future (adjective) future (noun) future (verb) future shock future(s) studies future, alternative futures futures research futurible futurics futuring futurism futurist futurize game gaming heuristic holistic ideation image indicator indicator, leading indicator, social lead time linear model model, mathematical modeling modeling, global monitoring morphological analysis nonlinear planning precursor (adjective) precursor (noun) prediction proactive prognostics progressionism projection quality of life reductionism relevance tree risk assessment scanning scenario simulation singularity social experiment stage synergy. systems theory thought experiment threshold time frame time horizon utopia visioning wild card End of glossary by www.WFS.org