The Blind Men and the Elephant John Godfrey Saxe (1816-1887)
It was six men of Indostan To learning much inclined, Who went to see the Elephant (Though all of them were blind), That each by observation Might satisfy his mind.
The First approached the Elephant, And happening to fall Against his broad and sturdy side, At once began to bawl: "God bless me! but the Elephant Is very like a WALL!"
The Second, feeling of the tusk, Cried, "Ho, what have we here, So very round and smooth and sharp? To me 'tis mighty clear This wonder of an Elephant Is very like a SPEAR!"
The Third approached the animal, And happening to take The squirming trunk within his hands, Thus boldly up and spake: "I see," quoth he, "the Elephant Is very like a SNAKE!"
The Fourth reached out an eager hand, And felt about the knee "What most this wondrous beast is like Is mighty plain," quoth he: "'Tis clear enough the Elephant Is very like a TREE!"
The Fifth, who chanced to touch the ear, Said: "E'en the blindest man Can tell what this resembles most; Deny the fact who can, This marvel of an Elephant Is very like a FAN!"
The Sixth no sooner had begun About the beast to grope, Than seizing on the swinging tail That fell within his scope, "I see," quoth he, "the Elephant Is very like a ROPE!"
And so these men of Indostan Disputed loud and long, Each in his own opinion (...guess...) Exceeding stiff and strong, Though each was partly in the right, And all were in the wrong!
Futurlogics uses an intuitive guess?
FUTURLOGICS is a MOS or (M)ind (O)perating (S)ystem What is a MOS? In computer science an OS is an acronym for (O)perating (S)ystem. An Operating System provides a base to put various apps or applications to execute. The Mind/Brain also needs an Operating System upon which we can function with what we know now or what we shall know. It is how we apply our knowledge either upon knowledge itself or upon the things we know about. It is theory in action. Simply a MOS is the theme upon which we execute our methods or praxis. praxis 1. Practical application or exercise of a branch of learning. 2. Habitual or established practice; custom. praxis 1. (Social Science / Education) the practice and practical side of a profession or field of study, as reduced from theory 2. (Social Science / Education) a practical exercise 3. accepted practice or custom Origin Greek: deed, action, from prassein--to do. Some say that prediction of the future is just a guess. Taking this postulate to it's extreme let us look at the operation of the human guess. Can one guess like an explosion in sheer randomness. Of course random with no shaping or influences, is only an imaginary event. Yet imagination has “fluences.” (Weibull Distribution) And there bouncing off each other, an object or an act, interact even if, it is against each other in the mix of things. Learning to guess is the art of deep thinking. There is in the mix of things these types of guesses and more: educated guess prosaic guess common sense guess biased guess preconditioned guess ignorant guess knowledgeable guess naïve guess expert guess studied evaluated guess lucky guess esp guess spiritural guess inspired guess denying guess pre-influenced guess random guess hysterical guess crazed guess “cooked” guess chaotic guess lustful guess hopeful guess blasphemous guess divine guess disparate guess calculated guess blind guess “dumb” guess gambled guess memory guess system guess intuitive guess insightful guess stupid guess human guess guessing games guessing based upon previous guess(es) swag (acronym) Guesses in school are controlled and students are not rewarded or are ridiculed for guessing in tests or when they offer ideas not always drawn from the assigned teaching and study. Guessing is seen to be an evidence of poor preparation. Never or seldom seen as ideas from intuitive and free association and insightful or intuitive feelings, structures, or approaches. Discipline and order prevail. Chaos disturbs the teaching environment. We as living beings can not guess by shear randomness . There is always Weibull distribution in the human condition . This is useful to the futurist as it is clues to the methods used to futur. The purpose for futurlogics is to increase the hit success of our guessing. So that guessing gains a greater respect or is authoritative and impressive to the skeptic with the accuracy. It makes futuring more accurate. Funny Farm movie excerpt: Moving guy: Hey Mac, which way to Redbud? Mac: How'd you know my name was Mac? Moving guy: Just guessed. Mac: Then why don't you guess your way to Redbud. Futurist guesses are influences by : Family Linguistics Cultural Sociological Economics Educational Personality Paradigms Thoughts Dreams Health . . . So it is all a guessing game, this area of study is commonly and collectively known as futuring? Well, it is and it isn't. It is, because no one can predict the future with any precision . . . . And it isn't just a guessing game, because there are methods and procedures that you may employ to minimize (if not entirely end) the chances you will be caught flat footed when the future arrives . . . . ~ from Bruce A. Shuman book BEYOND THE LIBRARY OF THE FUTURE After the futurist has enough guesses. The next step would be to categorize them into such sample categories as: Crazy Ridiculous Never happen, impossible. Never happen, possible May happen, possible Possible . . . Probable Highly Probable Likely Pending Certain Inevitable Future Reality Then the futurist offers various scenarios based upon the above categories. Then the futurist ponders over the most suitable scenario(s); that is makes judgements. Then the futurist “dry labs” preparations, plans dependent upon the above scenario(s) to proof the scenarios doing risk assessments vs reward assessments. This is the place for mind experiments and ROI analysis. Next tactical to strategic preparation/planning begins if it is a bottom up style. Or Strategic to tactical planning/preparations begins if it is top down style. Or Strategic to tactical and then tactical to strategic if is is middle out style. Man is spiritual or Man is a product of the evolutionary processes, Inasmuch as man is spiritual being , he is capable of considering, pondering, creating, meditating thoughts on the future(s), by abstraction through abstraction. If man is a product of evolution then when is his evolution finished and where is it going. Futur it. So what is the affect/effect of the continual study of the future as a total abstraction upon the mind of man? This kind of study necessitates the ability and/or facility to handle or use abstractions or abstract thoughts. A MOS is needed to capacitate the mind to handle abstraction. Continual study of the future will build or create an MOS or theory upon which a praxis or methods can be used. As in Money Creation futuring or future studies generally takes at least three forms: a. Top down central planing, social collectively engineered and by assigned commitment. b. Bottom up capital sovereignty, spontaneous inventive, free will generation of monetary value or series of predictions. c. Simultaneous top down / bottom up approach to the future. May be called middle out approach. PRAXIS OVERALL VIEW Whether it is the "Lone Wolf" futurist or "fully accepted in a society" futurist, all are budding prophets given enough time and opportunity to learn the secrets of probing the future. Futurist grow in spurts as is evident by their breakthroughs. However, there are fundamental rules, guidelines or praxis to futuring. Be realistic the future will be real and subject to the most rigorous scientific investigation as it arrives to be now. You must take plenty of time to forecast. Trust that there are true methods and models of research. Respect other's talents honestly and you will get respect back from your peer group for their approval. Charity towards the beginner is how the future movement grows. Be proud enough and confident enough to present your findings for publications or if you are a lone wolf futurist, self-publish as this effort in itself will give personal growth and solidify your certainties. Remember that the elephant in everyones room is our/their own future.Next Thinking Hats